Vitória
v
Void
Bahia
The model leans Vitória at 42%. Expected goals: Vitória 1.77, Bahia 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil45
25
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória | 45% | 2.20 | 2.75 | 34% | +12 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | 2.85 | 33% | −7 |
| 2Bahia | 29% | 3.41 | 2.75 | 34% | −4 |
Pick: Vitória. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitória −0.5| Vitória line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 23% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.