Cruzeiro
Flamengo
The model leans Flamengo at 40%. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.22, Flamengo 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Cruzeiro won 1 of their last 6; Flamengo won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruzeiro | 29% | 3.39 | 3.30 | 29% | +1 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | 3.30 | 29% | −1 |
| 2Flamengo | 43% | 2.34 | 2.20 | 43% | 0 |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −0.5| Cruzeiro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.