Chapecoense AF
0–4
Won
Flamengo
The model leans Flamengo at 52%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98, Flamengo 1.95. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match17
24
59
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chapecoense AF | 17% | 5.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Flamengo | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 0–110.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −1| Chapecoense AF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.