Vitoria
v
Void
Botafogo RJ
The model leans Vitoria at 39%. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.70, Botafogo RJ 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil41
25
33
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitoria | 41% | 2.41 | 2.25 | 42% | 0 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | 3.30 | 29% | −3 |
| 2Botafogo RJ | 33% | 3.02 | 3.20 | 30% | +4 |
Pick: Vitoria. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitoria 0| Vitoria line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.