Corinthians
v
Void
Cruzeiro
The model leans Corinthians at 40%. Expected goals: Corinthians 1.28, Cruzeiro 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil43
31
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Corinthians | 43% | 2.31 | 2.20 | 42% | +1 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | 3.10 | 30% | +1 |
| 2Cruzeiro | 26% | 3.90 | 3.40 | 28% | −2 |
Pick: Corinthians. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Corinthians −0.5| Corinthians line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.