Predictions · CONMEBOL Libertadores · outside model coverage
Rosario Central
0–0
Lost
Corinthians
The model leans Rosario Central at 40%. Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.13, Corinthians 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match43
34
23
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosario Central | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Corinthians | 23% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rosario Central. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.0%
- 0–015.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rosario Central −0.5| Rosario Central line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.