Palmeiras
v
Void
Internacional
The model leans Palmeiras at 63%. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.33, Internacional 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match72
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | 72% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Internacional | 9% | 10.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −1.5| Palmeiras line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.