Internacional
1–2
Lost
Cruzeiro
The model leans Internacional at 38%. Expected goals: Internacional 1.53, Cruzeiro 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
27
32
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internacional | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruzeiro | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Internacional. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Internacional 0| Internacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.