Albion Rovers
Auchinleck Talbot
The model leans Auchinleck Talbot at 63%. Expected goals: Albion Rovers 0.82, Auchinleck Talbot 2.46. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 52%. Albion Rovers won 1 of their last 3; Auchinleck Talbot won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albion Rovers | 10% | 10.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Auchinleck Talbot | 72% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Auchinleck Talbot. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 2.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–39.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Auchinleck Talbot −1.5| Albion Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| +1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.