Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage
Johnstone Burgh
2–2
Lost
Albion Rovers
The model leans Albion Rovers at 55%. Expected goals: Johnstone Burgh 0.05, Albion Rovers 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 97%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match35
64
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Johnstone Burgh | 2% | 64.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Albion Rovers | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Albion Rovers. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 90% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% |
| Both teams to score | Yes3% | No97% |
Most likely scores
- 0–134.9%
- 0–032.6%
- 0–218.7%
- 0–36.7%
- 0–41.8%
- 1–11.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 71% · BTTS No 65%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Albion Rovers −1| Johnstone Burgh line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| -0.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| 0 | 2% | 34% | 64% |
| +0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| +1 | 36% | 36% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.