Blumenau Esporte Clube
Sao Luiz
The model leans Blumenau Esporte Clube at 70%. Expected goals: Blumenau Esporte Clube 3.04, Sao Luiz 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 53%. Blumenau Esporte Clube won 0 of their last 3; Sao Luiz won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blumenau Esporte Clube | 84% | 1.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Sao Luiz | 5% | 21.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Blumenau Esporte Clube. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.04 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 3–011.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 4–08.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blumenau Esporte Clube −2| Blumenau Esporte Clube line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| -1 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.