Blumenau Esporte Clube
EC Sao Jose
The model leans Blumenau Esporte Clube at 61%. Expected goals: Blumenau Esporte Clube 2.05, EC Sao Jose 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blumenau Esporte Clube | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.78 | – | – | – |
| 2EC Sao Jose | 10% | 10.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Blumenau Esporte Clube. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.05 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%
- 1–013.6%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blumenau Esporte Clube −1.5| Blumenau Esporte Clube line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.