Sao Luiz
Blumenau Esporte Clube
The model leans Blumenau Esporte Clube at 55%. Expected goals: Sao Luiz 0.94, Blumenau Esporte Clube 2.15. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%. Sao Luiz won 1 of their last 4; Blumenau Esporte Clube won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sao Luiz | 14% | 6.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Blumenau Esporte Clube | 64% | 1.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Blumenau Esporte Clube. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 2.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–37.6%
- 1–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blumenau Esporte Clube −1| Sao Luiz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 24% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.