Predictions · Serie D · outside model coverage
Sao Luiz
0–0
Lost
CS Alagoano
The model leans CS Alagoano at 46%. Expected goals: Sao Luiz 1.04, CS Alagoano 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match24
27
49
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sao Luiz | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2CS Alagoano | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: CS Alagoano. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CS Alagoano −0.5| Sao Luiz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.