Predictions · Serie D · outside model coverage
Sao Luiz
2–1
Won
Velo Clube
The model leans Sao Luiz at 38%. Expected goals: Sao Luiz 0.98, Velo Clube 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
37
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sao Luiz | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Velo Clube | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sao Luiz. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.6%
- 1–019.2%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sao Luiz −0.5| Sao Luiz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.