Abo Qir Semad
Al Ittihad Alexandria
The model leans Al Ittihad Alexandria at 68%. Expected goals: Abo Qir Semad 0.05, Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 96%. Abo Qir Semad won 1 of their last 3; Al Ittihad Alexandria won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Abo Qir Semad | 1% | 111.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Ittihad Alexandria | 77% | 1.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ittihad Alexandria. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes4% | No96% |
Most likely scores
- 0–131.1%
- 0–224.4%
- 0–019.9%
- 0–312.7%
- 0–45.0%
- 0–51.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ittihad Alexandria −1.5| Abo Qir Semad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| -0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| 0 | 1% | 21% | 78% |
| +0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| +1 | 22% | 32% | 45% |
| +1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.