Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Zamalek SC

00
Lost

Al Ittihad Alexandria

The model leans Zamalek SC at 50%. Expected goals: Zamalek SC 1.32, Al Ittihad Alexandria 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%. Zamalek SC won 2 of their last 3; Al Ittihad Alexandria won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Zamalek SC52%1.93
XDraw31%3.21
2Al Ittihad Alexandria17%5.83

Pick: Zamalek SC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.65
LineOverUnder
1.559%41%
2.532%68%
3.514%86%
Both teams to scoreYes35%No65%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.4%
  • 0013.9%
  • 2012.2%
  • 1112.0%
  • 019.1%
  • 217.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Zamalek SC −0.5
Zamalek SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%28%47%
-0.553%47%
053%29%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%14%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.