Abo Qir Semad
National Bank
The model leans National Bank at 74%. Expected goals: Abo Qir Semad 0.05, National Bank 2.25. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 96%. Abo Qir Semad won 1 of their last 3; National Bank won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Abo Qir Semad | 0% | 232.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.72 | – | – | – |
| 2National Bank | 88% | 1.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: National Bank. Calibrated probability 74% (raw model output 88%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 2.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes4% | No96% |
Most likely scores
- 0–225.4%
- 0–122.6%
- 0–319.0%
- 0–410.7%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–54.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: National Bank −2| Abo Qir Semad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| -0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| 0 | 1% | 11% | 88% |
| +0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| +1 | 12% | 24% | 64% |
| +1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.