Asyut Petroleum
National Bank
The model leans National Bank at 62%. Expected goals: Asyut Petroleum 1.25, National Bank 2.91. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 68%. Asyut Petroleum won 0 of their last 3; National Bank won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Asyut Petroleum | 13% | 7.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
| 2National Bank | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: National Bank. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 2.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.3%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–26.6%
- 0–36.4%
- 1–45.8%
- 1–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: National Bank −1.5| Asyut Petroleum line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 8% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| +0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| +1 | 29% | 20% | 52% |
| +1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.