Predictions · Ligue 1 · outside model coverage
ES Sétif
0–1
Lost
ES Ben Aknoun
The model leans ES Sétif at 42%. Expected goals: ES Sétif 1.62, ES Ben Aknoun 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match46
27
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ES Sétif | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2ES Ben Aknoun | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: ES Sétif. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ES Sétif −0.5| ES Sétif line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 25% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.