Predictions · Ligue 1 · outside model coverage
Olympique Akbou
1–1
Lost
ES Ben Aknoun
The model leans Olympique Akbou at 50%. Expected goals: Olympique Akbou 1.61, ES Ben Aknoun 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match51
27
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Olympique Akbou | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2ES Ben Aknoun | 22% | 4.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympique Akbou. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.5%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympique Akbou −0.5| Olympique Akbou line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.