Predictions · Ligue 1 · outside model coverage
ES Ben Aknoun
2–2
Lost
USM Alger
The model leans ES Ben Aknoun at 50%. Expected goals: ES Ben Aknoun 1.53, USM Alger 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match50
28
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ES Ben Aknoun | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2USM Alger | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: ES Ben Aknoun. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 0–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ES Ben Aknoun −0.5| ES Ben Aknoun line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.