Predictions · Ligue 1 · outside model coverage
MC Oran
2–2
Lost
USM Alger
The model leans MC Oran at 50%. Expected goals: MC Oran 1.31, USM Alger 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match50
31
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MC Oran | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
| 2USM Alger | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: MC Oran. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: MC Oran −0.5| MC Oran line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.