Predictions · Ligue 1 · outside model coverage
Paradou AC
0–2
Lost
ES Sétif
The model leans Paradou AC at 41%. Expected goals: Paradou AC 1.86, ES Sétif 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match45
24
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paradou AC | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
| 2ES Sétif | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Paradou AC. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
- 2–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paradou AC −0.5| Paradou AC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.