Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Bandırmaspor

11
Lost

Keçiörengücü

The model leans Bandırmaspor at 33%. Expected goals: Bandırmaspor 1.16, Keçiörengücü 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Bandırmaspor won 1 of their last 5; Keçiörengücü won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bandırmaspor36%2.75
XDraw32%3.17
2Keçiörengücü32%3.12

Pick: Bandırmaspor. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.07
LineOverUnder
1.565%35%
2.538%62%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.4%
  • 1012.5%
  • 0111.5%
  • 0010.8%
  • 217.7%
  • 207.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bandırmaspor 0
Bandırmaspor lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%22%62%
-0.538%62%
038%29%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%20%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.