Vitória de Guimarães
Casa Pia AC
The model leans Vitória de Guimarães at 50%. Expected goals: Vitória de Guimarães 1.57, Casa Pia AC 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória de Guimarães | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Casa Pia AC | 18% | 5.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vitória de Guimarães. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 0–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitória de Guimarães −0.5| Vitória de Guimarães line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 25% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.