Gil Vicente
Académico Viseu
The model leans Académico Viseu at 37%. Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.04, Académico Viseu 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gil Vicente | 30% | 3.38 | 1.86 | 50% | −20 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | 3.25 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Académico Viseu | 39% | 2.53 | 4.33 | 22% | +18 |
Pick: Académico Viseu. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.24 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–113.2%16.7%
- 0–112.7%–
- 1–010.6%9.1%
- 0–010.2%12.5%
- 1–28.2%–
- 0–27.9%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gil Vicente 0| Gil Vicente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Gil Vicente -0.5 | 31% | 3.24 | 1.93 | 50% | −19 |
| Asian handicap | Académico Viseu +0.5 | 69% | 1.45 | 1.93 | 50% | +19 |
| Draw no bet | Gil Vicente | 43% | 2.33 | 1.33 | 71% | −28 |
| Draw no bet | Académico Viseu | 57% | 1.75 | 3.25 | 29% | +28 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 | 1.95 | 48% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 54% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 52% | +2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.