Estrela da Amadora
Famalicão
The model leans Famalicão at 50%. Expected goals: Estrela da Amadora 0.83, Famalicão 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estrela da Amadora | 21% | 4.78 | 2.82 | 33% | −12 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.20 | 29% | +1 |
| 2Famalicão | 49% | 2.03 | 2.45 | 38% | +11 |
Pick: Famalicão. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 0–115.0%13.3%
- 1–112.5%16.7%
- 0–010.6%11.8%
- 0–210.6%8.3%
- 1–08.8%11.8%
- 1–28.8%10.0%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Famalicão −0.5| Estrela da Amadora line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 15% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Estrela da Amadora 0 | 30% | 3.28 | 2.05 | 47% | −16 |
| Asian handicap | Famalicão 0 | 70% | 1.44 | 1.80 | 53% | +16 |
| Draw no bet | Estrela da Amadora | 30% | 3.36 | 2.00 | 46% | −17 |
| Draw no bet | Famalicão | 70% | 1.42 | 1.73 | 54% | +17 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 | 1.91 | 50% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 57% | 1.75 | 1.91 | 50% | +7 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.