Braga
v
Pending
Vitória de Guimarães
The model leans Braga at 60%. Expected goals: Braga 2.20, Vitória de Guimarães 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default67
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Braga | 67% | 1.49 | 1.79 | 52% | +15 |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.89 | 3.40 | 27% | −7 |
| 2Vitória de Guimarães | 12% | 8.16 | 4.50 | 21% | −8 |
Pick: Braga. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Braga −1.5| Braga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.