Sporting CP
v
Void
Vitoria de Guimaraes
The model leans Sporting CP at 69%. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.74, Vitoria de Guimaraes 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default80
14
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 80% | 1.25 | 1.30 | 71% | +9 |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.07 | 5.25 | 18% | −3 |
| 2Vitoria de Guimaraes | 6% | 16.26 | 8.00 | 12% | −5 |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.74 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.3%
- 3–011.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.7%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −2| Sporting CP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| -1 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.