Casa Pia AC
v
Void
Benfica
The model leans Benfica at 63%. Expected goals: Casa Pia AC 0.58, Benfica 2.11. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default20
72
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia AC | 8% | 12.32 | 15.00 | 6% | +2 |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.08 | 6.50 | 14% | +6 |
| 2Benfica | 72% | 1.39 | 1.15 | 80% | −8 |
Pick: Benfica. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.58 – 2.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–215.1%
- 0–114.3%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Benfica −1.5| Casa Pia AC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 7% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.