Estoril
v
Void
Famalicao
The model leans Famalicao at 39%. Expected goals: Estoril 1.12, Famalicao 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match29
29
42
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estoril | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Famalicao | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Famalicao. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Estoril 0| Estoril line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.