Málaga
Levante
The model leans Málaga at 45%. Expected goals: Málaga 1.81, Levante 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Málaga won 0 of their last 3; Levante won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Málaga | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Levante | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Málaga. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Málaga −0.5| Málaga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.