Rayo Vallecano
Deportivo Alaves
The model leans Rayo Vallecano at 45%. Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.44, Deportivo Alaves 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Rayo Vallecano won 1 of their last 4; Deportivo Alaves won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rayo Vallecano | 48% | 2.09 | 2.45 | 39% | +9 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | 3.10 | 31% | −1 |
| 2Deportivo Alaves | 23% | 4.37 | 3.10 | 31% | −8 |
Pick: Rayo Vallecano. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rayo Vallecano −0.5| Rayo Vallecano line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.