Predictions · LaLiga ·
Elche
v
Void
Barcelona
The model leans Barcelona at 57%. Expected goals: Elche 1.06, Barcelona 2.34. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, 1xBet_Spain15
20
65
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elche | 15% | 6.71 | 8.40 | 12% | +3 |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.99 | 5.79 | 17% | +3 |
| 2Barcelona | 65% | 1.54 | 1.38 | 71% | −6 |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 2.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −1| Elche line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 22% | 43% |
| +1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.