Udinese
Lazio
The model leans Udinese at 37%. Expected goals: Udinese 1.15, Lazio 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Udinese won 4 of their last 6; Lazio won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Udinese | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Lazio | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Udinese. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.91 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 2–17.7%
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Udinese 0| Udinese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.