Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage
Cosmos
v
Pending
Sarasota Paradise
The model leans Cosmos at 47%. Expected goals: Cosmos 1.90, Sarasota Paradise 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match49
24
27
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cosmos | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarasota Paradise | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cosmos. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cosmos −0.5| Cosmos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 22% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.