Charlotte Independence
Portland Hearts of Pine
The model leans Charlotte Independence at 50%. Expected goals: Charlotte Independence 2.03, Portland Hearts of Pine 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Charlotte Independence | 52% | 1.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Portland Hearts of Pine | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Charlotte Independence. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Charlotte Independence −0.5| Charlotte Independence line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 22% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.