Vitória
Grêmio
The model leans Grêmio at 30%. Expected goals: Vitória 1.05, Grêmio 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória | 34% | 2.98 | 2.10 | 45% | −11 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | 3.30 | 28% | +4 |
| 2Grêmio | 34% | 2.95 | 3.50 | 27% | +7 |
Pick: Grêmio. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 34%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 67%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.06 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–113.5%16.7%
- 0–112.8%10.5%
- 1–012.8%14.3%
- 0–012.1%11.8%
- 1–27.1%7.7%
- 2–17.1%11.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitória 0| Vitória line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Vitória -0.25 | 41% | 2.44 | 1.85 | 52% | −11 |
| Asian handicap | Grêmio +0.25 | 59% | 1.70 | 2.00 | 48% | +11 |
| Draw no bet | Vitória | 50% | 2.01 | 1.50 | 63% | −13 |
| Draw no bet | Grêmio | 50% | 1.99 | 2.50 | 38% | +13 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 | 1.91 | 50% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 58% | 1.74 | 1.91 | 50% | +8 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.