Coritiba
v
Mirassol
The model leans Coritiba at 37%. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.21, Mirassol 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match39
31
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Mirassol | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coritiba. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coritiba 0| Coritiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 29% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.