Internacional
Santos
The model leans Internacional at 40%. Expected goals: Internacional 1.71, Santos 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internacional | 44% | 2.28 | 1.96 | 49% | −5 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.90 | 3.50 | 27% | −2 |
| 2Santos | 31% | 3.27 | 3.90 | 24% | +6 |
Pick: Internacional. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.40 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.7%15.4%
- 2–19.1%11.8%
- 1–07.6%13.3%
- 1–27.5%7.7%
- 2–06.5%10.5%
- 2–26.4%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Internacional −0.5| Internacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Internacional -0.5 | 45% | 2.23 | 2.00 | 48% | −3 |
| Asian handicap | Santos +0.5 | 55% | 1.81 | 1.85 | 52% | +3 |
| Draw no bet | Internacional | 59% | 1.70 | 1.40 | 66% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | Santos | 41% | 2.43 | 2.75 | 34% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 | 1.80 | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams to score | No | 38% | 2.61 | 1.95 | 48% | −10 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.