São Paulo
Atlético-MG
The model leans São Paulo at 41%. Expected goals: São Paulo 1.48, Atlético-MG 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 44% | 2.27 | 2.05 | 46% | −1 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | 3.30 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Atlético-MG | 28% | 3.63 | 3.60 | 26% | +2 |
Pick: São Paulo. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.3%16.7%
- 1–010.9%15.4%
- 2–19.1%11.1%
- 0–18.3%–
- 2–08.1%10.5%
- 0–07.4%12.5%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: São Paulo −0.5| São Paulo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | São Paulo -0.25 | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 | 53% | −1 |
| Asian handicap | Atlético-MG +0.25 | 48% | 2.09 | 2.05 | 47% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | São Paulo | 62% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 63% | −1 |
| Draw no bet | Atlético-MG | 38% | 2.60 | 2.50 | 38% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 | 1.95 | 48% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 48% | 2.09 | 1.80 | 52% | −4 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.