Corinthians
v
Pending
Santos FC
The model leans Corinthians at 42%. Expected goals: Corinthians 1.43, Santos FC 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil46
29
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Corinthians | 46% | 2.17 | 1.86 | 51% | −5 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | 3.30 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Santos FC | 25% | 4.06 | 4.50 | 21% | +4 |
Pick: Corinthians. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Corinthians −0.5| Corinthians line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.