Coritiba
v
Void
Corinthians
The model leans Coritiba at 36%. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.02, Corinthians 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil37
35
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 37% | 2.69 | 3.00 | 32% | +6 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.88 | 3.00 | 32% | +3 |
| 2Corinthians | 28% | 3.56 | 2.57 | 37% | −9 |
Pick: Coritiba. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.8%
- 0–015.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coritiba 0| Coritiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 32% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.