Coritiba
v
Void
Chapecoense AF
The model leans Coritiba at 50%. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.59, Chapecoense AF 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match54
27
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Chapecoense AF | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coritiba. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.8%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coritiba −0.5| Coritiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.