Predictions · Saudi Arabian First Division League · outside model coverage
Al Taee
2–1
Won
Al-Jandal
The model leans Al Taee at 50%. Expected goals: Al Taee 2.10, Al-Jandal 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match52
23
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Taee | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Jandal | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Taee. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.4%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Taee −0.5| Al Taee line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.