Predictions · Chile Primera · outside model coverage
Coquimbo Unido
v
Pending
Universidad de Concepción
The model leans Coquimbo Unido at 62%. Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido 2.14, Universidad de Concepción 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match71
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coquimbo Unido | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Universidad de Concepción | 9% | 10.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coquimbo Unido. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%
- 1–013.1%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coquimbo Unido −1.5| Coquimbo Unido line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.