Gaziantep FK
Rizespor
The model leans Rizespor at 37%. Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.82, Rizespor 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 72%. Gaziantep FK won 1 of their last 3; Rizespor won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gaziantep FK | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Rizespor | 39% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rizespor. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.0%
- 3–14.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gaziantep FK 0| Gaziantep FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 19% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.