Gaziantep FK
Alanyaspor
The model leans Alanyaspor at 39%. Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.39, Alanyaspor 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Gaziantep FK won 1 of their last 3; Alanyaspor won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gaziantep FK | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Alanyaspor | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Alanyaspor. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.7%
- 0–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gaziantep FK 0| Gaziantep FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.