Gil Vicente
v
Void
Casa Pia AC
The model leans Gil Vicente at 51%. Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.68, Casa Pia AC 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default59
26
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gil Vicente | 59% | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56% | +3 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | 3.40 | 27% | −1 |
| 2Casa Pia AC | 15% | 6.59 | 5.50 | 17% | −2 |
Pick: Gil Vicente. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gil Vicente −1| Gil Vicente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 26% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.